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Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (file photo)
A cable released on the Wikileaks  website and reported on by Britain's Guardian newspaper quotes a U.S. envoy as saying Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak may remain in office for life.

The Guardian says the information is in a May 2009 secret cable that U.S. ambassador to Cairo Margaret Scobey sent to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. 

The newspaper quotes Scobey as saying Mr. Mubarak will probably seek re-election next year and would "inevitably" win.  She said the 82-year-old leader is "most likely to die in office," rather than voluntarily step down. 

According to the Guardian,  Ambassador Scobey also described the Egyptian leader, who has been president since 1981, as a political survivor who maintained his long grip on power by avoiding risks.

The newspaper also quotes Scobey as saying Mr. Mubarak's son, Gamal, as the person most likely to succeed him.  

The Guardian released the information Thursday, a day after leading Egyptian opposition figure Mohammed ElBaradei called for a boycott of the 2011 presidential elections. 

The Nobel Peace Prize laureate called Egypt's election process a "farce" in a video message on his Facebook website. 

Earlier this month, Mr. Mubarak's National Democratic Party swept to victory in parliamentary elections, after the country's two main opposition groups boycotted a second round of voting to protest alleged fraud.

Dutch authorities arrested a 16-year-old boy on Wednesday in relation to the cyberattacks against Visa, MasterCard and PayPal, which were aimed at punishing those companies for cutting off services to WikiLeaks.
The boy was arrested in The Hague, and he will be arraigned before a judge on Friday in Rotterdam, according to a press release from the Netherlands' Public Prosecution Service. The boy, whose computer equipment was seized, has allegedly confessed to taking part in the attacks.
The Public Prosecution Service said he is likely part of a larger group of hackers.
The arrest follows a series of distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks aimed at websites that have been critical of WikiLeaks, which has been releasing portions of 250,000 secret U.S. diplomatic cables since late last month. The attacks seek to overwhelm websites and services by sending streams of meaningless traffic.
Part of the attacks originated in the Netherlands and the main site coordinating the attacks, anonops.net, was hosted in a Dutch data center in Haarlem. The site is down since police actions Wednesday.
Right after the police found out that there were cyberattacks coming from the Netherlands, the Team High Tech Crime started an investigation, the Dutch attorney general reported.
The attorney general also noted that "probably thousands of computers" took part in the attacks. The police are still investigating and will probably arrest more people.
Since the release of the documents began, several companies have decided to cut WikiLeaks off from their services, including PayPal, MasterCard, Visa and the Swiss payment transaction firm PostFinance, where WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange held an account.
In response, a loose affiliation of hackers called Anonymous have orchestrated DDoS attacks against those websites over the past two days or so, knocking many of the sites offline. The group has dubbed that effort "Operation: Payback." Other websites that have been attacked include those of vocal critics of WikiLeaks, including U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman and former Alaska Governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.
Twitter and Facebook have also deleted accounts believed to be affiliated with Anonymous.
On Thursday, the BBC's Radio 4 program broadcast an interview with a 22-year-old who goes by the nickname "Cold Blood" and claims he is part of Anonymous. Cold Blood, who appeared in the BBC's studios, said that more people were downloading a botnet tool that enables them to perform a DDoS attack.
The campaign is aimed at companies that have decided not to deal with WikiLeaks, Cold Blood said, and is also a protest against what Anonymous believes is increasing control over the Internet by governments and the European Union.
"We are trying to keep the Internet open and free for everyone," said Cold Blood, who described himself as a software engineer.
WikiLeaks and its founder and editor Assange have come under fierce criticism from U.S. government officials and politicians for releasing the information, which is believed to have been leaked to the site by U.S Army Private Bradley E. Manning.
Manning has been charged with mishandling and transferring classified information in connection with the cables and a video of an Apache helicopter shooting civilians in Iraq.

Chisinau (Moldova.ORG) -- Wikileaks has revealed some documents about Moldova and the Transnistrian conflict, according toGuardian.co.uk.
A document from June 2007, tells about a meeting between Georgian President Saakashvili and Under Secretary Burns and talks about Russia and it’s influence in Abkhazia.

"Without responding directly, Saakashvili said Moldovan President Veronin (Voronin) had told him that he no longer expected the Russians to do anything about Transnistria to resolve the problem, and he would now approach the Europeans for more assistance," quoted from the document.
Saakashvili nonetheless believed that Russia could eventually be brought to deal on Moldova, as with South Ossetia, if not Abkhazia.
In March 2009, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev met in Moscow with Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and the head of the unrecognized breakaway region of Transdniester, Igor Smirnov. The final statement of the tripartite talks contains no legal commitments and no important steps were made in solving the Transnistrian problem.

In a memorandum dated November 16, 2007 on the Teo Peter case and the impact of any compensation offered to family relations Romanian-American artist, Taubman noted that a controversy on this topic would enable critics and opponents from the political scene undermine important initiatives in Romania. In his opinion, the first and most important of these was the “surge”, with Lockheed-Martin, to “persuade Romania to consider the purchase of F-16/JSF to replace the outdated fleet of MiGs.
“Lockheed-Martin, in tandem with allies from the Presidency and the Ministry of Defence, the search path” single source “for the decision on the fighters, which does not want embarrassed to see the Brussels bureaucracy main European competitors of F-16 and Eurofighter Grippen. It was always a risky exercise, as expected a very vocal reaction from the supporters of the idea of a European fighter. scandal on the Teo Peter case could lead to a departure from American option, if only for reasons of optics, “reads the note.
Supreme Defence Council ( CSAT) approved the proposal for MND in March to purchase 24 F-16s in use. F16 aircraft acquisition approved by CSAT rate around 1.3 billion dollars.
Defense Ministry stated that the 24 aircraft are approved by CSAT Block 25 variant, revitalized and fully equipped and package includes technical assistance for a period of 3-5 years and logistic support package, flight simulators, training and technical crew, transport, infrastructure adaptation to the ground, ammunition, weapons, administrative costs


Hong Kong was a potential terrorist target during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, according to a cable released by WikiLeaks.

AP
Hong Kong was on a list of targets for terrorist groups during the Beijing Olympics, according to a cable released by WikiLeaks.
The cable, published Saturday evening on the disclosure website, was written in July 2008 by Dan Piccuta, deputy chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Beijing at the time, and cited a Chinese intelligence officer. According to the cable, al Qaeda’s second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, assigned former East Turkestan terrorists to target attacks on Olympic facilities and landmarks. The cable identified potential targets, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, the U.S. president, U.S. secretary of state, U.K. prime minister, U.K. foreign secretary, VIP tourists and the opening and closing ceremonies.
The terrorists were bomb-making experts and could carry materials in plastic products, jewelry and crystal ornaments, according to the cable.
The cable didn’t offer additional details. Hong Kong hosted China’s equestrian events in Sha Tin during the Olympics.


Jason Reed / Getty Images-pool
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates inspects an honor guard in Cairo with Egyptian Defense Minister Mohamed Tantawi.
Recently leaked diplomatic cables reveal that America’s staunchest Arab ally—and the recipient of the second-largest American military-aid package—is tenaciously resisting U.S. pleas to reform its military mission to meet 21st-century threats. Instead, Egypt, a waning regional power, insists on procuring additional conventional weapons more suitable for last century’s battles.
WikiLeaks’ release of multiple American cables shows repeated requests for the Egyptian military to modernize to reflect new regional and transnational realities, including the need to defeat Iranian-funded militant groups; combat piracy; cooperate on peacekeeping missions; train Iraqi troops, and stem illegal migration. “Egypt’s aging leadership, however, has resisted our efforts and remains satisfied with continuing to do what they have done for years: train for force-on-force warfare with a premium on ground forces and armor,” reads a December 2008 cable from U.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey to Gen. David Patraeus. That message was echoed in a February 2010 cable.

Egypt’s intransigence complicates relations with the U.S., and could create a stumbling block for future cooperation on American policy in the Middle East, especially if Congress uses it as an excuse to cut military aid, something the cables say Egypt considers “untouchable.”
“The more Egyptian military cooperation can be viewed as backstopping U.S. military requirements in the region, the easier it is to defend the Egyptian assistance program on the Hill,” Scobey wrote in the December 2008 cable. The last decade has seenrepeated attempts by Congress, as recently as 2008, to cut military funding to Egypt or channel the money as economic aid. Those efforts ultimately have been blocked by frantic last-minute pressure from the Bush and Obama administrations.
But with Egypt’s power projected inward at a restive population, American officials continue to grapple with a clumsy military that’s ill prepared for modern challenges in an increasingly volatile region. “The cables reveal a military deeply reluctant to take part in regional counterterrorism efforts, and the focus on weapons necessary for desert battle is a reflection of that,” says Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies the Egyptian armed forces. “The Egyptian military is not good at or interested in, quite frankly, projecting power. It is there to ensure the survival of the regime and protect the country’s 

Domestic stability in Egypt is tenuous at best. Ailing octogenarian president Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt for almost three decades. And there’s no clear successor in the wings, even as threats to his stranglehold on power accumulate on all sides. Faced with a popular Islamist opposition, rising food prices, economic discontent, a potential water crisis as countries fight over Nile river rights, and the possibility of a refugee overflow stemming from Sudan’s upcoming referendum, Egypt is hedging its bets by investing in tanks and fighter jets.
“Egypt because of its regional position cannot ignore sources of instability in the region,” says Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kadry Said, a military adviser with the government-funded Al Ahram Center think tank. “We cannot ignore the big picture. You need aircraft, you need modern ships; you need missiles.” Said cites Egypt’s security priorities as the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iran, and Egypt’s land border with Sudan.


As I already broke the news on twitter, the new Wikileaks embassy documents, also called the #cablegate, also include mentions of the Balkans region (SerbiaCroatiaBosniaKosovo etc) in some of the leaked cables. I’ll be posting the updates as I scan through more interesting documents when they are published. So far, Belgrade has been mentioned 994 times, Pristina 668, Podgorica 164, Sarajevo869, Zagreb 1686, and Skoplje 522 times.
UPDATE: Dec 09 – “Serbian government knows exactly where Mladic is” says Spanish diplomat.
UPDATE: Still no cables released with comments from the former US Ambassador in Serbia and CroatiaWilliam D. Montgomery, but we are all impatient to see his blurbs. He already stated that he’s angry with the cables being published.
Mysterious document and sim card
UPDATE:
BALKANS: Serbs can’t win both the Kosovo and the EU
[Roland Galharague, MFA
A/S-equivalent for Continental Europe] asked that the USG work together with
the EU to discourage the Serbians from proposing a new U.N.
resolution on Kosovo, stating that Serbian Foreign Minister
Jeremic “seems to believe Serbia can win on Kosovo and win EU
entry. We need to let him know this is not true.” Right
now, Galharague reported, “the Serbs are furious with us (the
French)” in response to the demarche the GOF delivered in
Belgrade in early February (reftel) about Serbia’s possible
plans for a U.N. resolution. “We delivered the message in
very forceful terms.” In fact, the Serbs interpreted the
demarche as a major change in position, Galharague reported.
The EU had thus far maintained the position that the issues
of Kosovo and Serbian entry into the EU were not formally
linked. “There was no formal conditionality,” Galharague
said, adding that the Serbs now understand that to be a
member of the EU they must eventually recognize Kosovo. “We
told them we do not want another Cyprus,” he explained,
referring to Cyprus’ controversial EU accession in 2004 as a
divided island where EU legislation remains partly
“suspended” in the northern part of the island which is
outside of the government in Nicosia’s control. Nonetheless,
Galharague predicted the Serbs will likely go ahead with the
U.N. resolution in any case, and the USG and the EU will be
forced to oppose it.
Furthermore, Galharague asserted, before the
Serbs join the EU, they will need to resolve key issues with
Kosovo in the fields of justice, police, customs, transport,
agriculture, and also any differences over names and
terminology. The best way for Serbia to address issues
related to Kosovo is by working with the European Union Rule
of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX). “At the end of the day,
though,” he reiterated, “Serbia must recognize Kosovo if it
wants to join the EU.”
UPDATE: NATO in Kosovo refuses to give access to COE Committee on the Prevention of Torture:
During a December 12 meeting with the Ambassador,
Council of Europe (COE) Secretary General Terry Davis
complained of what he described as continued NATO
unresponsiveness to COE requests for access to KFOR-run
detention centers in Kosovo. He claimed he had sent seven
separate letters to NATO SYG de Hoop Sheffer, none of which
had elicited a satisfactory response. Davis described Kosovo
as a “black hole” for the COE Committee on the Prevention of
Torture, notwithstanding the fact that the COE charter gives
the organization the right to visit any detention place in
member states. Given NATO’s obsructionism, Davis told the
Ambassador—“as a courtesy,” he said—that he would have
no/no choice but to “go public” over the issue in early 2006.
¶3. (C) Davis concluded that others, but not he, had begun to
“connect the dots” and were speculating that Kosovo might be
a site for secret CIA prisons free from international
scrutiny. We note that on November 26, Le Monde carried an
article in which the COE’s Human Rights Commissioner, Alvaro
Gil-Robles, is reported as claiming that a September 2002
visit to Camp Bondsteel had given him the impression that it
may have served as a detainee camp. This story was rebutted
the following day in Le Figaro and Le Monde by the French
general who was in charge of KFOR at the time, who stated
that all interrogations of suspects at Bondsteel had been
conducted in the presence of NATO—that is to say, French—officers.
UPDATE: Bernard Kushner to Hillary Clinton
¶12. (C) FM Kouchner said that Bosnia remained a
problem, but, it was important to simply “follow the
road.” It was important to push the Serbian government
closer to the EU, though he conceded this was difficult
due to Dutch and Belgian objections to the failure of
the Serbs to hand over Ratko Mladic to ICTY. Presumably
referring to EULEX, he said there was success on the
ground in Kosovo as the two sides were not killing each
other and concluded that things were not in a bad place
for the moment
.
UPDATE:
Spanish Ambassador Eduardo Aguirre to Daniel Fata, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy, US Department of Defense on Spanish Kosovo troops:
 In the Balkans, where its troops have served for more than 15 years, Spain has shown its ability to maintain troops for the long-term. Right now, however, we need keep making our case to keep troops in Kosovo. For domestic political reasons and fear of provoking Russia, Spain is ambivalent about the current direction of Kosovo policy. So long as there is a UN resolution authorizing the Ahtissari plan, Spain will maintain its troops in KFOR. If the UN fails to agree on a new resolution, Spain has said that it would have to seriously consider pulling its troops out, but has emphasized that it would do this only in extremis and only in careful consultation with allies. We need to keep the pressure on, reminding Spain that NATO has a critical role and that we can’t let the Russians drive a wedge between the US and Europe on issues like this.
Update: Qatar says it has not recognized Kosovo because of the Russians:
MFA Assistant Minister Mohamad Al-Rumaihi told Ambassador December 20 that Qatar’s IMF and World Bank votes in favor of Kosovo show Qatar’s true sympathies on recognizing Kosovo. The Russian President, however, has asked Qatar to “go slow” in announcing recognition, he said. Out of sensitivity to Russian concerns, Al-Rumaihi said, Qatar has done so. He encouraged Secretary Clinton to ask HBJ about the timing of Qatar’s eventual recognition, noting that that Qatar had been approached by organizers of a UK project about using its good offices with the Government of Kosovo to protect Kosovo’s Christian heritage once Qatar formally recognizes its independence.
UPDATE:
The interesting bit relates to comments on Kosovo government and their dissatisfaction with the EULEX-Serbia cooperation, but also the EU diplomat’s dissatisfaction with Serbian MFA Vuk Jeremic:
”[Elysee Diplomatic Advisor Jean-David] Levitte noted that the EULEX mission is having diplomatic problems with the Kosovar government and public after signing two technical protocols with Serbia. They are hoping to ensure continued calm as Kosovo heads into municipal elections. [Assistant Secretary Philip H.] Gordon stated that the Kosovars will have to accept the protocols but that it should be clearly explained that these are technical agreements that have no impact on Kosovo’s independent status. Levitte also criticized Serbian FM Jeremic, saying that he is doing nothing to encourage Serb return or participation in Kosovo’s government. Levitte noted that Jeremic “makes big promises” every time he comes to France, but doesn’t follow through. Levitte no longer meets with him and does not consider him to be the “modern face of Belgrade” that he purports to be.
Also, this one:
[ Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun] Sinirlioglu registered the Turkey Government’s determination to resist perceived EU efforts to exclude Turkey from the Balkans, particularly Bosnia. He identified effecting rapprochement between Bosnia and Serbia as Turkey’s immediate diplomatic goal for the region. Towards that end, Sinirlioglu said, we convinced Haris Siladjdzic, who had been in Ankara the day before, to cease references to Serbian “genocide.” The United States and Turkey have “agreed to disagree” on the Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Bosnia; nevertheless, “we value your involvement in the Balkans.”
Ambassador Joseph E. LeBaron, to Prime Minister of Qatar Hamad bin Jassim Al Thanito:
—We encourage you to recognize an independent Kosovo, as
Saudi Arabia and others have now done. We certainly
appreciate your votes in favor of Kosovo in the IMF and World
Bank. They are important precursors to formal recognition,
but when will you take that final step?
more:
Guido Westerwelle also spoke against any type of automatic decision in favor of membership for Turkey. There was also general agreement that the EU is not ready for new members at this time beyond Croatia
UPDATE:
Chancellery National Security Advisor Christoph Heusgen revealed that Serb President Tadic was coming to Berlin the week of November 16 for consultations. He noted that while Tadic always claimed to be tough on Republika Srpska PM Dodic, he needed to be tougher. While expressing pessimism about whether it would ever be possible to turn Bosnia into a “working state,” Heusgen agreed it was important to keep trying

The documents revealed by Wikileaks in the press reveal four new mentions of Romania. According to Hotnews.ro, in two documents from the US Embassy to Paris, Romania is mentioned as a source of prostitutes and a victim of Russian and Ukrainian energy policy. Documents also refer to American military HQ in Romania and Bulgaria. Cables released note Pierre Moscovici's comment in 2006 about Romania's joining the EU.


Romania or Bucharest appear in cables sent by US Embassy to the world. Most refer to the NATO 2008 Summit in Bucharest and mention the capital as a location for the event. 

February 1, 2007: a document refers to Romania in a cable of US Embassy to Madrid. The cable presents an invetigation over CIA flights in Europe. The cable mentions a CIA flight on the route Guantanmo - Tenerife - Constanta, Romania on April 12, 2004 

In 2006, Romanian daily Evenimentul Zilei published an investigation showing that there were about 10 CIA flights entering the country. The planes, part of CIA were suspected of transferring, on the globe, terrorist detainees.

The four cables involving Romania: 
October 22, 2009 A cable presents an information for FBI director Robert Mueller reading that France is a destination of prostitute victims and Romania appears as a supplier of prostitutes. 

June 26, 2007 A cable presents a discussion among American and French diplomats. One of the French diplomats comment that Russians could argue that American military bases in Bulgaria and Romania are destined not only for trainings but also for new implementations. The comment is not explained nor commented. 

June 5, 2006. US Emabssy to Paris informs about a talk between Pierre Moscovici and Victoria Nuland, US Ambassador to NATO. The cable reads that Moscovici said that Romania and Bulgaria will join the EU in 2007 but the joining will be accompanied by heated debates. 
February 5, 2009 Hillary Clinton meets French Foreign Affairs Bernard Kouchner and talks include a mention that Romania and Poland were completely cut off from the energy policy and Russian and Ukrained were terrible. Kouchner said that a group of Europeans attempt to ensure a pipe for one country or the other. 

This really is priceless.

The leaked cables appear to reveal discussionsbetween various countries on whether they would take prisoners released from the Guantánamo Bay detention facility:


When American diplomats pressed other countries to resettle detainees, they became reluctant players in a State Department version of “Let’s Make a Deal.” Slovenia was told to take a prisoner if it wanted to meet with President Obama, while the island nation of Kiribati was offered incentives worth millions of dollars to take in Chinese Muslim detainees, cables from diplomats recounted. The Americans, meanwhile, suggested that accepting more prisoners would be “a low-cost way for Belgium to attain prominence in Europe. ...”
If nothing else, this is quite an enlightening insight into how the US views EU politics and relations between member states: take a low-threat Guantánamoterrorist inmate; give him a few fancy chocolates when he lands in Brussels; the Belgian prime minister (when they have one) gets to shake hands with the President of the Untied States; and France, Germany and the UK will bow down in awe and wonder.

It will take rather more than that for Belgium to attain prominence in Europe.

But this was the 'low-cost' option.

Alternatively, they could incur huge debt, say 11 times the size of GDP; bankrupt their national treasury; make pledges to creditors which amount to 220 per cent of the country’s annual economic output; call in the IMF and the ECB; arrange a bail-out; and then default on their agreements.

Belgium will then be as prominent as Greece and Ireland.

But that is the 'high-cost' option.

As the US State Department points out, taking a Guantánamo inmate is a lot cheaper.

Unless, of course, he starts blowing you up.

Out of the American diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks relating to China, perhaps most revealing are cables telling of Chinese government views of the country's relationship with North Korea and the its leaders themselves. Even at the time of their release, following the Dandong shooting incident andshelling of Yeonpyeong island this year, some Chinese netizens had come to see North Korea as something of a negative asset.
As columnist Xin Lijian noted late last month [zh], the total import-export volume between China and South Korea in 2007 was USD 159.9 billion; trade between China and North Korea, on the other hand, totaled USD 27.9 billion in 2008 and showed signs of decreasing through most of 2009. Then there's the vast subsidies sent to North Korea each year, paid for by Chinese taxpayers. Sina blogger Yao Xiaoyuan asks, is this friendship still worth it?
一则据说的最新消息说,维基解密::中国准备放弃朝鲜,,新一代领导人倾向支持南北韩统一。在我看来,如果属实,这是一则好消息。
[…]
韩战之后,中国一直为朝鲜的国内灾害、饥荒、扩军备战买单不说,还要为其发展核武器、惹是生非、耍流氓、搞无赖买单。如果再不停止做这种冤大头行为,总有一天,中国会因为朝鲜而大出血![…]中国自己的麻烦已经够多,为朝鲜买单的愚蠢行为,该被停止了!
Supposedly the latest news from WikiLeaks: China is preparing to abandon North Korea, and the new generation of leaders tend to support reunification of the two Koreas. If this is true, in my view, it's good news.
[…]
Since the end of the Korean War, China has foot the bill through all of North Korea's natural disasters, famine and arms expansions, without a peep. While they were developing nuclear weapons, stirring up trouble, playing rogue and thug, China kept footing the bill, still without complaint. If we don't stop letting them take advantage of us, then there's going to come a day when China will have to pay a bloody price for North Korea! […] China has enough problems of its own; paying for North Korea's is just stupid and needs to stop!
However, as Yan Shanxue notes, does North Korea remain just as useful an asset to China as it does to the United States and its East Asian allies?
延坪岛事件发生后,日美韩3方在对朝施压的同时均一致强调:“必须让对朝有重要影响力的中国发挥积极的作用”,无形中把压力球抛给了中方——“你是朝鲜的后台,你看该怎么办吧”。
不料中国突出奇招,要求六方团长坐下来一起商量对策。
对此,《朝日新闻》称:“本想逼着中国对朝鲜施加压力,从而进一步孤立朝方。可结果是‘中国提案’把球踢回来了。”
Following the Yeonpyeong Island incident, at the same time that Japan, America and South Korea have been putting pressure on North Korea, they've also been unanimous in emphasizing that “China, with its strong influence over North Korea, must begin taking a more active role,” deftly throwing the pressure back over to China's side—”you've got Korea's back, so it's up to you to make the next move.”
Seemingly out of nowhere, China the unexpected move of calling for renewed six-party talks to discuss countermeasures.
In response to this, Asahi Shimbun wrote, “The plan was to force China to put pressure on North Korea, thus further isolating North Korea. China's proposal, however, kicks the ball back to the other side.”
The flip side to that, notes ‘Battlefield Blade' at the nationalist-friendly Huanqiu blogging community, is how conveniently these cables set the tone for an escalation in measures against North Korea:
国际问题学者分析指出:“当年伊拉克战争,美国人收集的情报称伊拉克藏有大规模杀伤性武器,从而误导了政府决策。因此我们也不能对于‘维基解密’的文件过度迷信,应当高度存疑。尤其在当下,朝鲜半岛局势紧张,西方大肆渲染所谓中朝秘闻,将对局势产生不容小觑的影响,它们尤其可能发挥挑拨中朝关系的作用。”
Scholars of international politics have pointed out that “When the Iraq war began, intelligence Americans had collected suggested that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction, which misled the government in forming policy. Which is why we can't blindly believe what's in these “WikiLeaks” files, and ought to maintain a high degree of doubt. Especially given the situation today; with relations on the Korean peninsula so tense, the impact the West's gross exaggeration of a so-called secret pact between China and Korea will have on the situation cannot be underestimated. In particular, the leaks might even have the effect of stirring up relations between China and North Korea.”
Skipping the many conspiracies arising from the North Korea cables, if it's not in China's best interest, asone cable suggests it is, to see unification on the Korean peninsula, then in whose must it be?Answering that is Sina blogger Dao Feng:
暂不考虑朝鲜出于自卫还击韩国这件事情本身,先谈谈什么状态下的朝鲜符合中国的国家利益。在美国咄咄逼人的炮舰外交攻势下,很难想象一旦朝鲜陷于战争之中以及被美国入侵之后,会出现一个比目前伊拉克局势更加乐观的朝鲜,那种成天无数人体炸弹阴云笼罩下的伊拉克其周边的国家会安宁么?如果中国周边出现一个这样盛产人体炸弹的国家,中国如何自处?或者像美国宣传朝鲜是世界毒品制造主要国家的那样,再出现一个如同被美国势力掌握后的越南、柬埔寨和老挝那样的毒品环境,中国何以为安?
Without getting into whether or not North Korea was defending itself and retaliating against South Korea, let's first look at in which sort of state would be a North Korea be in China's best interest. Faced with America's aggressive gunboat diplomacy offensive, it's hard to imagine that if North Korea were to enter a state of war and then be invaded by the United States, there would appear a North Korea in any better shape than the Iraq of today. With countless suicide bombers darkening the sky there day in and day out, do the countries neighboring Iraq feel at ease? If a country bordering China began teeming with suicide bombers, what options would China be left with? Or take how America declares North Korea to be one of the main drug producing nations in the world; if another drug-filled environment held by American forces like Vietnam, Cambodia or Laos were to appear, would China be safe?
还是要再深究一下,美国政府的主要敌人是朝鲜吗?是个人都知道,中国、一个团结的中国、一个繁荣昌盛的团结在中国共产党领导下的中国才是美国政府的主要敌人。从太多的美国政府发表的言论中,都可以得知一个准确的信息,即只有一个分裂的中国,一个没有核心领导维护中国国家利益的中国,一个由买办阶级统治下的中国才是符合美国政府利益的,美国人可以这么看这么做,中国人不能这么看这么做。因为中国人有自己的国家利益,中国的国家利益与美国政府的利益是针锋相对的。
It's worth further consideration: is North Korea America's biggest enemy? As everyone knows, China, a united China, thriving and prosperous under the leadership of the Communist Party, is the American government's true enemy. From the many opinions expressed by the American government, one thing we know for sure is that only a divided China, a China with no core leadership able to uphold China's national interests, a China ruled by a comprador class, would be in line with American interests. Americans are allowed to do what they see fit, but not us Chinese. But China has its own national interests, and China's national interests are diametrically opposed to the interests of the American government.
Julian Assange, from Flickr user Jose Mesa
The American government's response to the leaking of the cables, as well as actions taken by Amazon, PayPal, EveryDNS and MasterCard, were not only widely reported upon by Chinese media, but they also call into question the validity of arguments made for broad freedoms across the global Internet.Launching into that is Sina blogger Liu Yang:
如果阿桑齐揭示的秘密都是真实的,被泄密、被揭露的国家虚心接受监督就完了,何必还要气势汹汹?用“国家机密”这个托词来反对阿桑齐也没道理。首先以美国为例,水门事件也是因为有人向媒体泄露机密而导致尼克松下台。其次,人们说透明化和公开化是民主的基本要求之一,美国为何要隐藏很多机密不让民众知道?
[…]
一旦有阿桑齐这样的人开始揭露真相,美国等“受伤害”的国家,因为都是同一利益共同体,于是便不论是非对错,不论真实与否,只想把阿桑齐这个监督者的嘴巴封起来。我们还是回到老问题:如果阿桑齐的嘴巴真的被封了,国际社会的民主监督、舆论自由如何体现?维基泄密的行为,只是民主监督和言论自由的具体体现之一。如果连这点都做不到,对于美国的国际活动,谁能实施监督?人们是否可以说:美国在国际社会不需要监督?
If the secrets that Assange has leaked are true, then countries who have had their secrets leaked and exposed should just be modest, deal with the scrutiny, and move on. Is there a need for all the aggressive posturing? Using “state secret” as an excuse to fight Assange, it makes no sense. Taking America as the primary example and Watergate, the reason Nixon stepped down is because someone leaked state secrets to the media. Further, people say that transparency and openness are one of the fundamental requirements of a democracy; so why does America want to keep so many secrets, and keep the public from learning of them?
The minute someone like Assange began revealing the truth, America and other “victim” nations, given that they are all share the same interests, started off not by discussing the right or wrong or what's truthful [in the leaks], but only seeking to shut the scrutinizer Assange's mouth. So we're back to that old question: if Assange does get shut up, how then will democratic supervision of and freedom of expression throughout the international community be realized? WikiLeaks' actions are merely one aspect of democratic supervision and freedom of speech. If even this cannot be allowed, who then is capable of monitoring America's international activities? Can people now say that America needs no scrutiny of its presence overseas?
The Chinese government hasn't, as has been reported, cracked down this week on Wikileaks-related content, but with the measures taken by the US government to contain the spread of the cables normally reserved for Chinese Internet censors, has Internet censorship in the name of national security gained greater legitimacy? Writing on these new challenges to #netfreedom is Across the Great Wallblogger Steve365:
而这次,当美国众议院指责维基解密为“恐怖组织”,当俄国放言要让其消失,当中国像屏蔽Twitter和Facebook一样将其屏蔽时,并没有多少人指责这些政府限制网络自由。或许,即便在很多坚定地网络自由捍卫者眼中,维基解密的做法,也已超过了“自由”的界限,应该受到控制;否则,一旦事态进一步严重,真正引发现实中的政治、经济纠纷,恐怕这又将成为政府管制互联网的重要理由。
Now, with the American Congress branding WikiLeaks a “terrorist organization”, with Russia stating it wants to make WikiLeaks disappear, with China blocking [sic] the site like it has with Twitter and Facebook, in fact not many people have criticized the actions of these governments in curtailing Internet freedom. Perhaps, in the eyes of many staunch defenders of Internet freedom, WikiLeaks' actions have exceeded the limits of “freedom” and it ought to be brought under control; if not, they fear, if situation worsens and leads to genuine political and economic disputes, the government will have significant grounds to censor the Internet.
然而,解密行动却没有任何停止的计划,甚至维基解密还有“恐怖化”的倾向:其创始人阿桑奇如今已经和本拉登一样不知所踪了。在未来一段时间,更多的、涉及范围更广的机密文件被公开,恐怕是无法避免的事情。这也提醒着我们,虽然互联网已经存在了近二十年,也一直在追求“自治”,但在目前看来,它还没有能力做到完全自治,现实世界中的政府干预,尤其是法律制约,仍旧是不可缺少的。另一方面,政府们的雷声大雨点小也让我们看见,即便是处理这类问题上有着丰富经验的美国政府,在面对新情况时也会束手无策,他们仍旧没有找到一个治理互联网的合适的途径。至于中国,面对这样的问题,“墙”则更是掩耳盗铃,毫无作用了。
But then, WikiLeaks has no plans to stop, and the group is apt to become even more “terrifying”: like bin Laden, the location of its founder, Assange, is unknown [sic]. In the near future, even more cables, with an even wider scope, will be released; unfortunately, this is unavoidable. But it also reminds us, that although the Internet has existed already for nearly twenty years [sic], it has always sought “autonomy”. At present however, it lacks capability to attain full autonomy, and in the real world, government intervention, particularly legal constraints, remain inseparable. Further, the failure of governments to match all their talk with action has shown us that even the American government, with all their experience in dealing with problems of this sort, is at a loss when faced with new circumstances. They still haven't settled upon appropriate means of governing the Internet. As for China, turning to “the wall” when faced with these kinds of problems, is not only self-deceiving, but also completely useless.
所以,对于那些将互联网视作自由王国的人来说,与其完全与政府、与法律对抗,不如与政府、与立法者一同去探寻互联网世界的边界,去明确互联网与政府各自的权利与义务,并用法律进行保障;这无论是对于寻求自治的互联网,还是对于希望预防互联网给现实世界制造事端的政府来说,都是有益的。当然,这一切需要有法治社会作为前提。
Thus, for those who hold the Internet as a realm of freedom, instead of turning to it to fight the government or the law, they'd be better off siding with the government and legislators in working toward defining the limits of the Internet world, and clearly defining both the rights and obligations of the government and the Internet, which would be guaranteed by law. Thereby, for either an Internet seeking autonomy or a government hoping to prevent the Internet from creating incidents in the real world, both would stand to benefit. Of course, this all presumes a society based on rule of law.
Again, asks Jay Chan, why should America's national security concerns trump China's?
奥巴马曾经说过:谁都不喜欢 别人说自己坏话,但开放的民主自由是发展的前提。(09年访华 演讲)
可笑的是,正是美国施压,亚马逊服务器居然不给维基解密提供承载服务。靠。居然美国也来这招,我还以为就中国有!其实美国也不是什么好货,威胁到美国的信息就给屏蔽了,那那些威胁到中国安全的信息,中国屏蔽有何不可。
Obama once said (in his 2009 speech while visiting China) that while nobody likes to listen to criticism from others, openness and democratic freedoms are the prerequisite to growth. What's funny is that it was under pressure from the American government that Amazon discontinued offering WikiLeaks hosting service on its servers. Damn. Even America does things like that, I thought this only happened in China! Actually, America's not as great as you think; if information that threatens America gets blocked, then what about information that threatens China's security? Why shouldn't China block that too?
More discussion on Internet freedom is needed, writes Sina blogger Flaming Arrow, perhaps drawing upon the experience of a Chinese netizen, but concludes that in the meantime, American efforts to shut WikiLeaks down will mostly likely fail:
很多人对美国公司在政府的影响下纷纷远离维基泄密表示不满。因为从它们对维基泄密的反应可以看出来,在西方国家自称最民主之内:第一,不能以后完全相信并依赖提供网上服务的公司;第二,这几件事说明要审查互联网比想象的要更容易。
即使是美国政府的律师都对和维基泄密打官司成功的可能性保持保守,说明即使法律上政府虽然可能不能对”言论自由”作挑战,但经济上还是可以打伤维基泄密的。但相信在不远的未来,美国政府一定会根据电报门这件事情更改对互联网的管理,还可能更加打击泄露机密的人,到时候不知道维基泄密会是怎么反应。
Many people are unhappy with seeing American companies, at their government's behest, distancing themselves from WikiLeaks. From their reaction to WikiLeaks, in what calls itself the most democratic nation in the West, we can see that: first, one cannot wholly trust or rely on web service-providing companies; second: what these incidents show us is that Internet censorship comes much easier than one would imagine.
That even US government attorneys remain conservative regarding the likelihood of success in a lawsuit against WikiLeaks shows us that while the government might not be able to challenge “freedom of speech” through the law, it can still hurt WikiLeaks financially. But I believe that in the near future, the American government is guaranteed to change its approach to Internet management as a result of these cables, and might even step up attacks against those who leak secrets. It's hard to say, though, what WikiLeaks' response then will be.

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